Being Jewish, I don’t really get to celebrate Christmas.  So, I am no fan of the holiday season.  I have heard, though, that my friends always enjoy getting gifts for Christmas, but Santa only delivers gifts if you are good.  If you are naught,y though, I have heard you get “coal” in your stocking.  Well, being Yankees fans, we have gotten “coal” in our stockings far too often, but this year we will get “Cole” in our stockings!   Yesterday, Aaron Boone delivered some good news on Gerrit Cole.  It seems like he actually might be available to pitch in some Spring Training games, which puts him on the optimistic side of his projected return (May instead of June).  This makes it a good time to look at the Yankees’ rotation and what the return of Gerrit Cole means for it. 

Gerrit Cole is a Potential Hall of Fame Pitcher 

As he hasn’t pitched in a meaningful game since October 2024, a reminder: Gerrit Cole is an ace.  Cole is 153-80 over his career with a 3.18 ERA, which is good for a 43.2 WAR and a 130 ERA+.  He is clearly on a Hall of Fame trajectory, and he has continued it since his time in pinstripes.  He won the Cy Young award back in 2023, and his 134 ERA+ in pinstripes closely tracks his career mark.  He still needs a couple of decent seasons to make the Hall of Fame, but he has been one of the best pitchers over the past decade, and it’s something we forget, since we haven’t seen him pitch for so long.  Compare him, for example, to any of the recent free agent starters and you would probably like Cole over any of them.  

He Replaces Garbage

Last season, the Yankees broke camp with Marcus Stroman and Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco.  Neither one made it through last year with the Yankees.  Both were, in a word, Garbage.  Combined, they were worth -0.5 WAR with a stat line in 17 appearances, and 15 starts, of 5-4 with an ERA north of 6, with 71 innings, 83 hits, 48 runs, 26 walks, and only 51 strikeouts.  Those are subpar numbers anyway you look at them.

2024 Cole is likely what to expect in 2026

He last came back from injury in 2024, which sort of sets the bar for the expectation for 2026, and he was solid in half a season, going 8-5 with a 3.41 ERA, which was good for 1.9 WAR and an ERA+ of 118.  So, he wasn’t Hall of Fame quality, but he was Hall of Good quality in 2024.  In 17 starts (the same number of appearances as Stro and Cookie), he pitched 95 innings, allowing 76 hits, 36 earned runs, 29 walks, and 99 strikeouts.

Conclusion

So, does the return of Gerrit Cole help the Yankees in 2026?  Duh.  Of course it does.  Note that in 2024, he only pitched in 17 games, which is what some of us expected before this recent announcement.  In those 17 starts, he accumulated 1.9 WAR.  Compare that to -0.5 WAR from the two starters who are now gone, and that is a 2.4 WAR gain.  Now, if he can start in 24 games, that looks like a WAR gain of more than 3.  The Yankees’ rotation overall was good last year, with a combined WAR of 14.4.  If you take away -0.5 and add 3 WAR from Gerrit Cole, that would be almost 18 WAR from the starting rotation, which would be excellent.  So, if your friends tell you the Yankees are just running back the same team, remind them of Gerrit Cole.  And remind them that in 2026, they won’t be getting “coal” in their stocking, but Gerrit Cole back on the mound (and probably sooner than expected)!