Much of the game of baseball is spent reflecting on the past. While the game is happening in the present, many speculative conversations are had about the future. Thus, a future conversation in that of the American League’s Most Valuable Player discussion is being examined far too early here in this article. That said, we will break down the potential cases for the five most likely winners in 2026 of the AL MVP award.

NUMBER FIVE: GUNNAR HENDERSON (BALTIMORE ORIOLES)

Predictions in baseball are often a fool’s errand, and even when guessed correctly, it’s more fool’s gold than true inside brilliance. And the honest truth is, there are a number of players that could be selected in this spot, but the list requires only five. Thus, we are suggesting that Gunnar Henderson will have a huge season in 2026 after the protection that was added to the O’s lineup. And while he selcection on this far too early list may seem like a case of low-hanging fruit, Gunnar merits the nomination. It may seem like an odd choice because why not suggest the big offensive acquisition of the Orioles’ offseason in Pete Alonso?

Well, the answer is both simple and complicated. The simple designation is that overall, Henderson is a better player than Alonso. When thinking about all aspects of a five-tool player, Gunnar achieves a plus rating at essentially every tool. And while “Polar Bear” Pete has a superb performance in the power department that far eclipses that of Henderson, the rest of the tools don’t match the scout-graded talents of Gunnar. So naming the distinctions for Gunnar over Pete makes for an easy call. That said, there are a number of other American League stars who could have made this spot on the countdown.

NUMBER FOUR: JOSE RAMIREZ (CLEVELAND GUARDIANS)

Jose Ramirez might as well change his name to “Mr. Consistent”, because his talents are consistently landing him in the top ten of AL MVP ballots. And while stating that Ramirez is underrated is a false claim, because everyone knows exactly how good JRam is, the more accurate term would be overlooked. Thus, it becomes easy in a list like this to include his name in the top five finishers of the American League MVP race. Ramirez is consistently one of the best players in all of baseball, and it tends to be done in a quiet fashion. Which is typically why the Guardians superstar is always amongst the very best in the league. And why the upcoming 2026 campaign will likely be no different for Ramirez and the AL MVP race.

NUMBER THREE: CAL RALEIGH (SEATTLE MARINERS)

There was a legitimate argument to be made that the Seattle Mariners backstop, Cal Raleigh, could have been the 2025 Most Valuable Player. And a follow-up season of continued success could lead to crowning him with his first MVP award. Witnessing Raleigh break several long-held records in MLB history is where his potential MVP case stood last season. Last season, Cal took the baseball world by surprise, but the 2026 season won’t come with such an air of mystery for the catcher. And while it would be foolish to anticipate another 60 home run season from Cal Raleigh, a follow-up season with an OPS+ over his career average of 127 (league average is 100) and a bWAR nearing 7 would not be out of the realm of possibility or surprise people.

NUMBER TWO: BOBBY WITT JR (KANSAS CITY ROYALS)

One of the most exciting young players in baseball is starting to become a grizzled veteran. Bobby Witt Jr is at the precipice of ascending to the upper echelon of the greats in the game today. Witt Jr has every one of the elicit five-tools that scouts and teams look for in a potential superstar player. And Bobby also comes with that ever-elusive sixth tool of intangibles and leadership. Bobby Witt Jr is heading into his age-26 season, so still not yet reaching what many consider to be the “prime” years for a baseball player, Witt is already amassing an impressive career. The next step of ascension is an MVP award on his mantle, and 2026 could be that season.

NUMBER ONE: AARON JUDGE (NEW YORK YANKEES)

The heir-apparent, the favorite, the perennial MVP candidate, and likely odds-on favorite to take home the AL MVP award again in 2026 is Aaron Judge. The New York Yankees captain has been on a run that has been rivaled by only Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds. It’s a wild notion to expect a 50 HR campaign, especially since PED testing was put into place in 2004. However, that’s what’s happened over the past four seasons. Outside of Judge’s injury-shortened season of 2023, when Aaron ran into the wall at Dodger Stadium, Judge has put up 50+ HR and 10 WAR seasons seemingly at ease. There’s little doubt or question right now that a healthy Aaron Judge is the best player on the planet. And to handicap the AL MVP race with anyone other than Judge as the number one and most likely candidate would be a foolish assertion. If Aaron Judge is healthy, then 50+ HRs and a 10+ WAR season should be anticipated. Bookmark it now, Aaron Judge will win his third consecutive MVP award and fourth in five seasons.